Covid19 and what you need to know

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Michael Johnson

Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by Michael Johnson »

Semtav (Brian) said that what I tried to put forth about Coronavirus got obscured by my negative comment to SFogler. I agree and to him I apologize.. Covid19 is a newly mutated virus to which we as a human population have zero immunity.To put this in context consider Native American populations in North America circa 1491. A mass civilization existed on the North American continent that had absolutely no immunity to diseases that were present in Europe. More of them died from exposure to Western diseases than to armed conflicts between peoples.Even if you have never had a flu shot you do have partial immunity to the flu because of years of exposure to various mutations of the virus. The expert to listen to this is Dr. Robert Fauci. If you have watched the news at all you know who this is. This virus is more contagious than influenza, has a higher death rate, there will be no vaccine for 18-24 months, and we are only now beginning to trial antiviral therapeutics. Most experts place the risk equivalent to the three worse influenza epidemics in the last 100 years. The Chinese experienced 90000 cases with close to 3000 deaths. Italy has the second highest exposure. Japan and South Korea are reeling with it as well. In the United States we are approaching 4000 cases with 60 deaths and counting. I live in WA state. Our estimates are that 4-6000 people have Covid19. Hospitals have cancelled all elective surgery to open up all available rooms for respiratory care. Hospitals in the US are used to running at full capacity so as to be efficient and not waste money. In short there is not excess capacity for something like Covid19. Judging from what has happened China, Italy, Japan, S. Korea, and France (all first world countries with modern medical capability) we will not be able to take care of all of the requirements of a sick population. We simply do not have enough beds or ventilators, or providers. This is a very real problem and people will die. I already have anesthesia providers within my group being tested for Covid19. We already have had contact with positive patients. I am stressed as are my partners and employees.This is real. It is not fake news. Peroxide will not make it better. And Dr. Drew needs to STFU!
Skywagon
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by Skywagon »

Thank you.
Gerry
SFogler
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by SFogler »

About the link to the article: NOWHERE have I read what the morbidity rate on COVID-19 is or the flu - I did the math myself... COVID-19 = 3%. Transmissibility is high and people will die. But CDC said 17000 deaths have already occurred caused by regular flu since October and not a whimper. That was the point of the link - some perspective on it please. I looked it up myself on the CDC website and they said between 12,000 and 80,000 deaths occurred in the 2018-19 flu season. How many know that? How many send their kids to school with the flu? Go to the movies, go to work, go to any assembly of people with flu symptoms? I thoroughly agree that the measures being taken now will minimize the spread and buy us time to find those beds and find an antiviral and later a vaccine. BUT we don't do this for flu that kills MANY MORE people each year. Why not? Oh and Colorado is no stranger to COVID-19 cases. And my 97 year old Mom is in a home that is now locked down and I can't visit her (for good reasons) - yes I am concerned.

And I know all about cancelling surgery - I am due for a cancer operation in two weeks, will I get it ???? I don't know. It would be ironic if I get an operation postponed and die of cancer because doctors like you freak out over a virus with a 3% morbidity. Did you know my doctor told me I had a 1% chance of my biopsy going south and bleeding out from that? The Native Americans had zero immunity against European diseases which caused up a 90% death rate - that's a far cry from 3%. Native Americans had ZERO ability to deal with anything medical - a shaman rattling bones does not equal global scientists working around the clock to find an antiviral that works.

I helped write the DOD Pandemic Influenza Plan at USNORTHCOM in 2007 when the avian flu was a concern. Two things: Trump did it right and on time. Our biggest fear for the spread of a truly lethal pandemic would be that our leadership would take the appropriate measures too late. Trump acted faster than we ever thought any president would due to the economic consequences if the president was wrong. That action has bought us some time to do the things you talk about and as a result it saved lives. Second thing. We also feared the media would hype the pandemic to get ratings instead of reporting the pandemic in context. It has done exactly that. Your ridiculous hysteria and idiotic challenges to me are the another thing we feared; that our country would revert to "every man for himself" and screaming hysteria instead of rational discussions, helpful suggestions, responsible actions, and working together to "keep the lights on" and help each other out. Yes this is serious - people are dying - but let's stop the hysteria and keep things in perspective. We are at a fork in the road - either we will pull ourselves apart or we can emerge from this a stronger nation and put past animosities aside and recover as a people and as a country.
jackrabbit
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by jackrabbit »

Excellent comments, Steve, I thoroughly agree!
Michael Johnson

Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by Michael Johnson »

We are continuing to do cancer surgery. That is not considered elective. The reality is we do not have enough beds for the respiratory patients. One only has to look at countries that are deeper in this than we are. No way to sugar coat this. Why do you think NIH and CDC are so consumed by this S Fogler? I know you think this is some Doctor hoax but it is not. I hope you do well! Many will not.
SFogler
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by SFogler »

This comment is for Nancy Pelosi since no one else will bring it up: How's that open border thing working out now?
SFogler
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by SFogler »

Michael,
You completely misunderstand my comments. I DO NOT think it is a hoax. The virus is very real and spreading. Our country is doing a lot of right things to delay the spread and buy time. I DO think that whipping up the public to the point that people are fighting over food is not necessary. FAR more people die every year from the regular flu. Nobody ever really knows if the flu vaccine will work due to the length of time it takes to test it and manufacture it and if the flu it was meant for has mutated. But nobody seems too concerned about that or about over 80,000 deaths in one year. But we're over the moon about 100 deaths and rioting in food stores. All I am saying is let's continue to do the right thing but realize this is NOT MERS with 30% or the Spanish Flu in 1918. We will get through this.
Michael Johnson

Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by Michael Johnson »

Steve, I most definitely did not misunderstand your comments. You are woefully uninformed. This country responded very late, did not take the WHO recommendations and people will pay with their lives for this. I hope your cancer surgery goes well. I continue to go to work taking care of patients. Some of my partners are sick. This is bad in WA state. It is coming to your neighborhood. Best wishes!
SFogler
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by SFogler »

Considering the political animosity over the last three years, this country responded VERY fast. Italy has 60 million people and 6 times the infected that we do with 330 million people. Somebody got something going here. I am sorry your colleagues are affected and people are dying. But with no way we can secure our borders I am surprised the effort was even attempted at all. But we did buy some time.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
Glen Ring
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by Glen Ring »

This " end of the world' mindset is self defeating. Some of us have faced death quite a few times and have a strange sense of humor. React calmly, follow SOP and rock on with life. Screaming that the sky is falling will be unproductive. No one is taking this lightly. If the grim reaper comes for you in the form of a virus then that's that. Most deaths today though, will be in by the hands of a drunk driver...who probably heard all the doom and gloom, got depressed, went to a bar , had too many drinks and hit the road home....only to cross the line and kill someone.

Rock on everyone..Stay positive.
There are those that talk, and those that act. Make a choice.
SSShooter
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by SSShooter »

Michael - you might as well give up. There is no reasoning with those who have faith.
Glenn
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Don McDowell
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by Don McDowell »

This to shall pass. We survived SARS, swine flue, Ecoli, ebola, and the list goes on. Some of us are old enough to remember the big scare that if you sat on a public toilet seat you would get the clap, and don't swim in some lakes because you would get polio..

Best thing to do is avoid large crowds in confined area's (which given the number of left wing lunatics with guns and agenda's isn't a bad thing to do anyway), practice good hygiene. That advice came from a few very good physicians I am personally aquatinted with.
This would most likely get done with quicker if we put the national media in quarantine for 90 days.
I suspect by June we'll see truck loads of toilet paper at garage sales for 2bits a bag, and the landfills will be over run with stale bottle water and canned goods that people don't want anymore.
AKA Donny Ray Rockslinger :?
dougf
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by dougf »

"Covid19 is a newly mutated virus to which we as a human population have zero immunity" - I have trouble believing this based on the low morbidity in healthy individuals AND mild symptoms being experienced by MOST individuals that have actually tested positive for the infection. Further, due to the unavailability of test kits, I suspect the number of individuals that have had or currently have the infection is 10 to 100x what is being reported, with a lot of those infected simply going about their daily lives as though it is just another bout of seasonal flu. Further, this cannot be compared to the lethal diseases such as small pox, etc. because these diseases have such a high morbidity rate among populations with no immunity. These kind of comparisons just add to the panic. Also, pay close attentions to the number of deaths, but notice in most cases the demographic is not reported. The high percentage of deaths are occurring in the same populations that die from seasonal flu. It is not a hoax, but the level of concern over this GREATLY outweighs the risk to otherwise healthy individuals. I'm healthy and not the least bit worried about contracting COVID19. What I am worried about is being able to go to the store to buy normal daily essentials due to the panic created by an out of control media that is pouring gasoline on the fire.
SFogler
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by SFogler »

dougf - well said.
"These kind of comparisons just add to the panic." That was my original point - that panic is surpassing rationality with this novel strain and that some perspective on the morbidity rate might help reduce panic. Evidently the acceptable casualty rate for seasonal flu is 12,000 - 80,000 dead with no one batting an eye. (According to CDC). We have little immunity for seasonal flu either - that's why we have flu shots every year - to be sure the anticipated new strain or a mutated strain is accounted for as much as is possible. This virus was not anticipated and therefore no vaccine or antivirals are available - yet. I understand medical professionals being extremely concerned about having to treat patients that have an illness for which there is no cure and the staff has no antiviral prophylactic to protect them. Heroes every one of them! I only hope and pray that after we get through this, and we will like Don said, that we as a society will demand that more attention be paid to where our gloves and meds come from, our antivirals and vaccine be made here again, and re-examine our medicine testing procedures to shorten the time that treatment/prophylactics can be made available without compromising safety or health. Maybe we can take this as a serious and hard lesson and use what is learned from this to better handle the seasonal flu so that those casualty rates will not go unnoticed and will decline. Meanwhile the COVID-19 situation should be a warning and highlight what our state and Fed govt agencies can do better next time. And how we as individuals can be better prepared for the next one. I'll probably hang on to the toilet paper though because there will be a next one.
BFD
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Re: Covid19 and what you need to know

Post by BFD »

SFogler where do you get this "without batting an eye" business? That is ridiculous.

What the heck is your point? CV19 is a heck of a bad deal. Let's just get on with trying to get through this without turning every forum in a disaster of arguing.
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